Richmond, Virginia – Tight and very competitive, this is how one can describe the current presidential race. As we approach the November general election in what appears to be a rematch from 2020, President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the former president and presumptive Republican nominee, are likely to concentrate on key battleground states. Although Trump’s guilty verdict in New York City hasn’t yet affected his ongoing support, his upcoming sentence for the hush money case on July 11 could potentially change that.
Ongoing battle
In a span of just a few days, two different surveys show that Biden has approached Trump in Florida. Once a swing state, Florida has become a solid Republican state in the last few election cycles, a trend more evident since Ron DeSantis became governor. Despite the fact that there are nearly one million more GOP registered voters in the state compared to Democrats, the recent surveys show that Trump “only” has a four-point lead over Biden. Trump secured the win in Florida in the last election cycles in 2016 and 2020.
Tight race
For months, Trump has been holding the lead in most of the swing states that Biden won in 2020. However, this lead has been marginal, and it doesn’t mean much in less than five months until Election Day. Just like Trump’s lead in Florida has come down to only four points against President Biden, Democrats are facing similar problems in Virginia, a state where Democratic candidates have been dominant for decades. But things could easily change this year if we consider some recent surveys.
The Virginia problem for Democrats and President Biden
Recent surveys have delivered concerning news for President Joe Biden in Virginia, a state the Democrats have consistently won for the past 20 years. A survey conducted by co/efficient shows that Biden is currently tied with Donald Trump in this state, which last favored a Republican presidential candidate in 2004 when George W. Bush won. The survey surveyed 851 likely voters, finding that 41% support Biden and 41% back Trump. Additionally, 12% remain undecided, and 7% would choose a third-party candidate, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
This survey, carried out on June 11 and June 12, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.36%.
Melting support
The results indicate a significant drop in Biden’s support compared to the 2020 election, where he secured 54.15% of the vote and won the state by a margin of 10.2%. This was the strongest showing for a Democrat in Virginia since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.
However, the credibility of co/efficient’s polling has been questioned by FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregator known for rating pollsters based on their accuracy and transparency. Co/efficient has received a low rating of 1.1 stars out of three and a transparency score of 3.2 out of 10, which casts doubt on the reliability of this survey.
Other surveys show similar results
Additional survey indicate a decline in support for President Joe Biden in Virginia. A recent Fox News survey showed both Biden and Trump receiving 48% of the vote. Similarly, a Roanoke College survey conducted in May found the two tied at 42% each. Scott Lucas, a professor of international politics at University College Dublin, mentioned to Newsweek that Virginia is among roughly eight battleground states that could determine the outcome of the upcoming November election. He noted, however, that with five months remaining until the election, the situation is still very uncertain and current surveys are not particularly predictive.
Democrats remain hopeful
Meanwhile, the Virginia Democratic Party remains optimistic. Susan Swecker, the Chairwoman of the Virginia Democratic Party, expressed confidence in Biden’s prospects for victory in Virginia, highlighting the campaign’s ongoing efforts and investments in the state. This includes the establishment of six campaign offices, with plans for more. On the other hand, as of now, Trump’s campaign has not confirmed the opening of any campaign offices in Virginia, nor has it responded to queries about future plans in the state
“It really doesn’t matter to me what any poll says at any time,” Swecker said. “We know what our job is. We know what is at stake. And we’re just laser-focused on that.”
