New York City, New York – More than two weeks ago, Donald Trump was handed a guilty verdict in New York City in a court case related to hush money payments he allegedly made during the 2016 presidential campaign. The former president and the presumptive Republican nominee will be remembered in American history as the first former or current U.S. president to be indicted and convicted on criminal charges. Trump was found guilty on all 34 charges for falsifying business records that impacted the outcome of the 2016 election.
Still unknown impact
It remains unclear how and if the guilty verdict will impact the presidential race less than five months before the November general election. While millions of people believed that a potential conviction could completely crush Trump’s presidential efforts, several post-guilty verdict surveys show that Trump has more or less similar support as prior to June 30, when he was convicted. Since that moment, the Trump campaign has raised millions of dollars, primarily from Republican supporters who believe that Democrats are using the Department of Justice in their legal cases against Trump, a claim they are unable to support.
The sentencing
The late-May conviction only opened the door to more problems for Trump. Juan Merchan, the judge overseeing the case, has scheduled the sentencing hearing for July 11, just a few days before the Republican National Convention. Given that this is Trump’s first offense of its kind and is considered “too old,” legal experts find it highly unlikely that he will receive a jail sentence. However, there is a possibility for Trump to spend some time under house arrest and even behind bars. Just hours after receiving the conviction, Donald Trump declared his intention to appeal.
Catchy timeframe
Donald Trump might have to serve time in a state prison, be placed on closely monitored probation, or be required to do community service during the summer—all this could happen well before an appeals court potentially reverses his historic conviction. Alternatively, he could remain free while he appeals, but the unresolved verdict could overshadow his campaign as he approaches Election Day. Ironically, Trump, known for using delay tactics in his numerous legal battles, might experience delays himself due to the slow-moving New York court system.
Read also: Unexpected problems in Florida should force Trump, Republicans in “panic mode”, but they don’t care
Trump could secure huge win
The schedule for the appellate division indicates that the earliest they can start oral arguments is October 1. This gives the judges just a few weeks to deliberate before the election. There’s no easy way to expedite this process since appellate judges take a summer recess and the First Department does not conduct hearings in June, July, or August. However, if Trump’s conviction is reversed by a higher court just before Election Day, it could significantly boost his campaign by allowing him to claim victory over his opponent and use the entire trial to his advantage against Biden
“In general, appellate work can move very slowly and deliberately. Nobody is generally in a rush to decide matters unless it’s something like a voting matter,” said Alan David Marrus, former New York state judge, as reported by The Daily Beast.
Read also: Trump’s recent master move could seal his Presidential comeback
Marrus pointed out that appellate courts often fast-track cases involving election laws, such as those concerning voter access, district boundaries, or candidate eligibility. However, even though the outcome of Trump’s case might influence voters’ choices, it isn’t directly tied to election law issues.
Trump recently called on the Supreme Court to help him
Recently, after being convicted on all charges in his New York criminal trial, former President Trump requested that the U.S. Supreme Court step in. However, the Supreme Court only intervenes if aspects of an appeal involve constitutional or federal legal issues, which seems unlikely here. Trump’s appeal followed a call from House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who urged the Supreme Court to overturn the conviction.
“The ‘Sentencing’ for not having done anything wrong will be, conveniently for the Fascists, 4 days before the Republican National Convention,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform Sunday.
At this point, it seems very improbable that the Supreme Court will step into Trump’s case in New York state.
