Tallahassee, Florida – Florida, once a swing state, has become a solid Republican state in the last few election cycles. This has become even more evident since Ron DeSantis became governor and implemented various laws and measures with the help of the Republican majority in the Florida legislature. Donald Trump, the former president and presumptive Republican nominee, won the state in 2016 and 2020, with many prominent GOP figures from Florida strongly supporting his presidential bid. Florida Senator Marco Rubio is also considered by Trump to be his running mate in November.
Registered Republican voters dominate Democrats
According to Florida Weekly, citing data from the state Division of Elections website, there were 5,247,165 Republican registered voters in Florida, while the Florida Democratic Party had 4,340,614 as of April this year. That 906,551-voter advantage continued to widen a gap that began in 2021 when the GOP overtook Democrats in registration. As of April 30, the new data revealed that 3,531,112 voters registered without party affiliation, while 352,027 registered with third parties. This gives Republicans and Trump a huge advantage, as we are now less than five months away from the November general election, at least on paper.
DeSantis assistance to boost Trump’s presidential efforts
Previously seen as a key competitor to Donald Trump in the presidential race, Governor Ron DeSantis withdrew from the primaries early and kept a low profile for several months. Few weeks ago, it was revealed that Trump and DeSantis have decided to collaborate against the Democrats and their presidential candidate, Joe Biden, setting aside their prior conflicts. This unexpected alliance could significantly enhance Trump’s chances of winning re-election, with DeSantis lending his support especially in fundraising efforts. But Trump and Republicans are now facing unexpected problems.
Recent survey brings worries
Recent polls in 2024 have consistently put Trump ahead in Florida, but the latest survey from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Mainstreet Research reveals a narrowing margin. This new poll, published on Wednesday, shows Trump with a 46 to 42 percent lead over Biden, a drop from the previous FAU poll in April where Trump led 50 to 42 percent. This change indicates a shift over the last two months. The latest survey was carried out on June 8 and June 9 and involved 883 registered Florida voters.
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Slow gains for Biden don’t bother Trump’s camp
Dukhong Kim, an associate professor of political science at FAU, commented that the new polling data indicates “Biden has made modest gains and kept the race competitive in the nation’s largest swing state.” Reacting to the FAU poll results, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung stated to Newsweek on Wednesday: “President Trump continues to dominate Crooked Joe Biden both nationally and in battleground states.” He noted that Trump’s lead is still robust, especially when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included in the poll. In that scenario, Trump leads Biden 43 to 37 percent, with Kennedy capturing 10 percent of the vote.
Another survey showing similar results
Last weekend, the Florida Democratic Party used a recent Fox News survey to fuel their fundraising efforts, proclaiming in their letters, “Donald Trump is in trouble in Florida. This confirms that Florida is back as a battleground state.” According to this survey, Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden has shrunk to just four points, 50% to 46%. This narrow margin falls within the survey’s margin of error, indicating a tightly contested race. Trump had previously secured Florida by a 3.5% margin in 2020.
The results of this new poll have taken many in the Florida media by surprise, with some outlets labeling it a “shock poll.” Kevin Cate, who formerly worked as a spokesperson for Obama’s campaign, remarked that the poll’s results are encouraging for the Democrats.
“If y’all think I’m kidding, our state and fed races in 2022 lost by 16 and 20 points. If this race is within four, Trump is spending major money and time here, which is a MASSIVE win for Joe Biden and Florida Democrats,” Cate said.
“Public polling is public polling and all that should be considered, but Florida being under 5 points is not what I’d expect, especially compared to other swing states,” said NBC News National politics reporter Matt Dixon.
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